Hagel Extremely Vulnerable, Iraq War Not the Issue Bruning Thinks it Is
May 03, 09:45 AM CST
The Nebraska Democratic Party this morning released new polling data looking at approval ratings and public sentiment regarding U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel and Nebraska Attorney General and potential Senate Candidate Jon Bruning.
According to the findings of the recent statewide survey of Nebraska, Hagel is on a dangerous terrain, particularly if he is to face Bruning in a Republican primary. Today, Hagel earns a net negative job performance score statewide with 42 percent of voters saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while a majority, 50 percent, says fair-to-poor. Hagel’s job performance is most negative with his Republican base, while it is net positive among Democrats and solidly mixed among independents. Among conservative Republicans, Hagel’s professional marks have crumbled, with almost two-thirds, 61 percent, saying he is doing a fair-to-poor job as Senator.
The poll results show that Bruning’s name recognition in the state is below what would be expected for someone who ran for statewide office twice and who has used government funds to market himself through Public Service Advertisements. Of those surveyed, 59 percent identified Bruning, 90 percent identified Hagel.
However, in sharp contrast to Hagel, Bruning earns a solid 61-degree personal feeling thermometer rating among those who can rate him, with a slightly better than three-to-one warm-to-cool ratio, 35 percent have a favorable or warm opinion of him, while 10 percent have a cool opinion. Bruning earns a strong professional rating as well, with 40 percent saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while 29 percent say fair-to-poor. Unlike Hagel, Bruning’s job performance is solid among the Republican base, and independents too, while Democrats split evenly.
The poll results indicate that Bruning might want to change the theme of his campaign however, as the Iraq war continues to be fought. Among those Nebraskans surveyed, 51 percent favor a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, while only 37 percent believe we need to give the President’s troop surge plan a chance to work. We believe those margins will continue to widen as the President’s policy plays out in the next several months.
The poll numbers released are based on a statewide survey of 500 likely November 2008 Nebraska voters. The survey was designed by Myers Research & Strategic Services and interviews were conducted by professional interviews between March 29 and April 3, 2007. The survey included Republican, Democratic and independent voters.
“It is clear that Senator Hagel is in trouble,” said Matt Connealy, Executive Director of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “These numbers indicate that Nebraskans will be looking for a change in representation in the U.S. Senate. It appears that Jon Bruning will present a strong challenge, however his numbers should be stronger for a statewide elected official.”
After assessing these numbers, Nebraska Democrats are confident that they will be afforded an opportunity to bring a strong candidate to the 2008 Senate race.
“Nebraskans are now joining with other voices throughout the country who believe we need a new direction for America and a new strategy for Iraq,” said Connealy. “We believe that if Bruning doesn’t move from his lockstep position behind the President, he will find great resistance to his position on the war.”
– by eric | Send this to a friend
— Dave Sund May 03, 11:50 AM CST #
I really don’t think Bruning is ready for the big league, and remember when Hagel trounced Attorney General Stenberg in the primary? What can Bruning do to draw distinctions between himself and Senator Hagel, advertise his own college articles? Point out his own lack of purple hearts?
But maybe Mr. Hagel should just retire and enjoy life, or go for president… he actually might not make a bad president, if Sunday Hagel finds the resolve to act for good, and not for the party.
— Tony Maloley Jr May 03, 07:52 PM CST #
— Tony Maloley Jr May 03, 07:58 PM CST #
As to your question, I don’t think our state should be in the business of killing people. If someone killed me and the state sentenced them to die, I would have to come back and haunt every single person that had anything to do with that decision. I would rather the guilty party had a long, long time to think about what they had done – and a very small cell to sit in while thinking about it.
— Brian T. Osborn May 03, 10:57 PM CST #
— Luke Peterson May 04, 04:26 PM CST #
— Kevin Rangle May 06, 09:38 PM CST #
I had hoped that we could identify a serious Democratic challenger. I’ll continue to remain optimistic; however, time is passing quickly for this to happen.
— Frank Adams May 08, 09:42 PM CST #
— Kevin Rangle May 09, 12:12 AM CST #
I think we have a lot of time yet, and I also think its clear now that Bruning indeed is challenging Hagel.
I’d encourage you to read the UNO Democrats blog
http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog
where we have been covering the senate race detail by detail as it unfolds.
In Virginia in 2006 Jim Web was not identified as the Democratic nominee until late 2005. I hope we’ll have a solid Senate candidate by the end of the summer- and, personally, I hope it’s Kerrey, Fahey, or Kleeb… but we’ve still got many months to find someone else.
— John Owens-Ream May 09, 04:58 PM CST #
Jim, without the assistance of the NDP, did a darned good job. Imagine what he could do with an entire state full of foaming-at-the-mouth grassroots Democrats working for him!
I hope David’s experience with the NDP wasn’t so negative that he would never come back. We need people with ideas, courage, and principles like Jim and David to lead this party into a brighter future.
— Brian T. Osborn May 09, 11:49 PM CST #
— Dave Sund May 10, 12:32 AM CST #