Moul or Never
Jul 11, 10:04 AM CST
Today’s Roll Call newspaper features a story about Maxine Moul and her bid to be the next to represent the 1st District in Congress. If anyone out there still thinks this isn’t a race to watch, they are mistaken…
Moul or Never
July 11, 2006
David M. Drucker, Roll Call Staff
With a first-term GOP incumbent facing a well-known Democratic challenger, Nebraska’s solidly Republican 1st district offers Democrats a chance to prove their theory that Americans’ desire for change will carry the minority party to a House takeover this fall.
Former Lt. Gov. Maxine Moul (D) contends Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) is vulnerable, arguing his eastern Nebraska 1st district is susceptible to national political trends that remain perilous for Republicans — unlike the state’s other two Congressional seats — and that the freshman Member has failed to forge lasting personal connections to his constituents.
“Voters are looking for a change, and Fortenberry is a freshman,” Moul campaign spokesman Joe Lestingi said. “We’ve done our own polling and found that the concerns you see nationwide are no different here.”
Republicans politely laughed off Moul’s assertions and her poll, pointing not just to the political atmosphere of the district generally but also to Fortenberry’s performance since winning an open-seat race in 2004. Fortenberry prevailed in a ferocious three-way primary to secure his party’s nomination that preceded his general election win against a highly touted Democrat.
Although internal polling conducted for Moul by Margie Omero of Momentum Analysis found Fortenberry leading the challenger 48 percent to 25 percent, with 27 percent undecided, Moul’s campaign was heartened because the Congressman’s support failed to reach 50 percent, while his favorability ranking topped out at 50 percent, with 19 percent of likely voters viewing him “strongly” favorable.
The poll of 400 likely voters, conducted May 31-June 4 and with a 4.9 percent margin of error, also found President Bush’s job approval rating low by Nebraska standards, bolstering the claim of Nebraska Democrats that the 1st district is ripe for flipping.
This survey showed Bush with a 40 percent net-positive approval rating and a 60 percent net-negative disapproval, compared to 76 percent positive and 23 percent negative for Sen. Ben Nelson (D), who is running for re-election this year against Omaha multimillionaire Pete Ricketts. Lestingi claimed these results bode well for Moul, especially in a year without Bush at the top of the ticket.
Fortenberry “is not where an incumbent needs to be,” Lestingi said. “We were extremely pleased to see there are people out there willing to consider another candidate. It was very good news for us.”
But despite Moul’s optimism, the Lincoln-based 1st district, like the rest of the state, is tough to crack for Democrats in federal races.
Of the state’s three Congressional districts, the 1st was second in the winning percentage it delivered to Bush — 63 percent — and not far behind his statewide total of 66 percent. Meanwhile, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) managed only 3 points better in the 1st district — 36 percent — than he did statewide, with Fortenberry’s Democratic opponent, state Sen. Matt Connealy, falling to the now-Congressman by 11 points.
Fortenberry rode to victory in tough primary and general election campaigns in the previous cycle over candidates with seemingly superior profiles and name identification on the strength of an effective grass-roots operation and well-honed fundraising skills.
In his 2004 Republican primary, the former Lincoln City Councilman upended the then-Speaker of Nebraska’s unicameral Legislature and the candidate endorsed by outgoing Rep. Doug Bereuter, the district’s longtime Congressman who was quite popular in his own right.
In the general election, Fortenberry, a Louisiana native who had moved to Nebraska just nine years before, disposed of Connealy, whom he outspent by only $234,382 to win with 54 percent of the vote.
“We believe the Congressman’s record of hard work will stand on its own,” said Kelly Lungren McCollom, Fortenberry’s chief of staff. “He likes to use a football analogy: He will run everyday, three and a half yards up the middle.”
Moul “does have name ID,” McCollom conceded. “But the Congressman is focused on doing what he was elected to do.”
Fortenberry’s team acknowledged Moul’s formidability and said the Congressman is not taking anything for granted. But other Nebraska Republicans are openly skeptical of the threat she poses.
She hasn’t served in elected office since 1993, when she resigned as lieutenant governor to accept then-governor and now-Sen. Nelson’s appointment as head of the state Department of Economic Development. Moul left the department in 1999 and hasn’t been a major statewide figure since.
Politically, Republicans add, she falls short of representing the values of the 1st district — a hindrance Fortenberry doesn’t share. He emphasized his socially conservative views in the 2004 race, and Republicans see Fortenberry’s opinions in that arena as a key advantage.
“She’s a liberal retread that they put up because they couldn’t find anyone else to run,” said Mark Quandahl, chairman of the Nebraska Republican Party.
Naturally, Democrats see things differently.
They believe Moul’s previous position leading the state Economic Development Department lends her the kind of pro-business, moderate credentials a Democrat needs to win in Nebraska. (Her campaign claims endorsements from business groups are forthcoming.)
Moul has raised more than $500,000 since entering the race in January and finished the second quarter with almost $370,000 in the bank. Democrats, and some Republicans, expect her to raise the funds she needs to give Fortenberry a viable challenge, and they predict she will be aided at the polls by having Nelson at the top of the ticket.
The Democratic Senator faces a tough re-election battle against Ricketts. Both sides already have started airing statewide television commercials, with the contest likely to evolve into an expensive, closely fought slugfest as Nov. 7 approaches.
Nelson, who has experience winning races in Nebraska and who served with Moul in Lincoln, called her a great candidate.
“She can attract bipartisan support,” he said.
Still, Moul has some work to do to catch the incumbent.
Fortenberry, who spent more than $1.2 million on his 2004 race, expects to close the second quarter with around $500,000 in cash on hand. And not only is he the incumbent, but Nebraska’s overwhelming Republican bent is still a prominent feature of 1st district politics, despite the fact that it probably has more Democrats than the state’s other two Congressional districts.
“Keep in mind the Congressman won Lincoln,” McCollom said, noting that Fortenberry won more votes in the Democratic-leaning state capital city in 2004 than his Democratic opponent did.
– by Eric Fought | Send this to a friend
Was it rushing back to Washington to make a weekend vote to interfere with an intimate family decision in the Schivo case? You know, that vote where the Federal government ignored and interfered with a state court’s decision? (Yea, that’s right, Republican’s are stand for state rights. . .) Where Congress and the President stuck their nose into a situation where a man sought to fulfill his wife’s wishes. (Yea, Republican’s are very pro-family.) And where the wishes of the Theocratic cults of Pat Robertson and James Dobson’s are of greater concern to this country than the wishes of 70% + of the population. (That’s right, Republicans don’t listen to special interest groups like those tree-hugging Democrats.)
Was it passing on tax-breaks to the richest of the rich, in a time, which our president himself says, is a time of “war” (a thing which no government in recorded history has ever done) so that our national debt greater now than if you added together all of this nation’s debt all the way back to 1787. (Another Republican standard: Tax and ((make our children)) Lend.)
Has Fortenberry’s fine work in fulfilling his obligation as a Congressman to check the power of the Executive branch, ensured that “Big Government” is not involving itself in the lives of its citizens. Question: Do you really think that the NSA doesn’t know who are NRA members, given how they have snooped into everything else?
But beyond those obvious political moves, and sticking his head in the sand, I cannot help but wonder why he thinks he should keep it up in Congress. Given the medical problems that he has seen in his daughter, and sitting up here in Nebraska (actually, in D.C.) and watching as the Crescent city in his home state is completely ignored by the government, can he ignore this nation’s medical problems, and let New Orleans become just a memory?
And how will he know how he is supposed to vote without DeLay?
— jimdake Jul 11, 10:08 PM CST #
— Don Kuhns Jul 11, 10:48 PM CST #
— Brian T. Osborn Jul 11, 11:34 PM CST #