There have been numerous right wing lies about Obama Care since it was originally introduced by President Obama four years ago and those lies are now escalating in light of the fact that enrollment in the health care exchanges begins on October 1. The Republicans in the Congress are so desperate to stop Obama Care that they are seriously considering damaging the economy by shutting down the government and defaulting on the full faith and credit of the U.S. As a result of their increasing desperation, the lies from the GOP are reaching a crescendo. Just what are those lies? And what is the truth?
Myth: Obama Care is a government takeover.
Reality: This lie originated with long time GOP message meister, Frank Luntz. This is probably the most common lie you hear from the right wing. Obama Care isn't a government takeover because most doctors will remain private sector employees, and the hospital and insurance industries aren't being nationalized. As a matter of fact, most of the new insurance coverage is being provided by private health insurance companies.
Myth: Obama Care has death panels.
Reality: This is probably the most shameless lie of all and has been repeatedly debunked by non-partisan fact checking sources. This lie began when right wing entertainer and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said: “The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.”
The provision of Obama Care that Palin and her allies lied about was a section of the bill that would have paid physicians for providing voluntary counseling to Medicare patients about living wills and other end of life care options. Laws providing for counseling patients on end of life decisions had been on the books for years, however, the laws did not provide for physicians to be reimbursed for giving such counseling during routine physical exams of senior citizens. As it turned out, this part of the bill was withdrawn as a result of the furor caused by this fabrication.
Myth: Obama Care will cause "Armageddon."
Reality: During the closing phases of the debate in the House over Obama Care in 2010, then GOP Minority Leader John Boehner predicted that Obama Care would cause "Armageddon" and "ruin our country." Since the passage of Obama Care, the economy has added private sector jobs for the last 41 months and created 7.3 million private sector jobs. In addition, the economy has created approximately 175,000 new jobs per month in 2013. (In contrast, only 31,000 jobs per month were created during the Bush Administration.)
Myth: Obama Care is a job killer.
Reality: The Right Wing has been falsely claiming that Obama Care has slowed down job creation and caused employers to hire part time workers in order to evade Obama Care's employer mandate. As it turns out, job creation at small businesses has almost doubled in the past six months, reaching 82,000 jobs at firms with 49 or fewer employees in July, payroll processor ADP says. As more information comes in, the health care law's impact can't be seen in hiring statistics, says Mark Zandi, former McCain economic adviser and chief economist of Moody's Analytics: "I was looking for it, and it's not there." Moreover, new research from Moody's and other economists debunks the right's allegation that small employers are hiring only part-time workers to avoid the health care law's mandate.
Myth: Obama Care is causing insurance premiums and health care costs to soar.
Reality: Those people who aren't insured through their employers or a government program will be purchasing insurance through the health insurance exchanges. (Approximately 15% of the population will go on the exchanges - the other 85% are already insured.) At the present time, many states are in the process of setting up their health insurance exchanges and the news on health insurance premiums is good. For example, in New York State, premiums on the individual market will decline around 50% as a result of Obama Care. New York joins Oregon, California, Colorado, Maryland, Montana, Louisiana, Nevada, and Connecticut in reporting lower than expected rates in the law’s new health care marketplaces.
The news on health insurance premiums for those who get their insurance from their employer is also good. The Department of Health and Human Services has recently reported that for Americans who receive health insurance through their employers, premiums rose 3% from 2011 to 2012, the lowest increase since 1996.
Since the passage of Obama Care in 2010, there have also been positive developments regarding the rate of growth in health care spending. Personal health care costs rose in the twelve months ending in May 2012 at the slowest rate in the last 50 years. In May, a report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office report demonstrated a $618 billion drop in projected Medicare and Medicaid spending over the next decade. "Data from across the economy — covering consumers, government and private employers — point to the same conclusion," Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers said. "Health care cost growth has slowed."
Myth: The implementation of Obama Care is a train wreck.
Reality: As I've discussed here in an earlier post, the GOP is actively trying to sabotage the implementation of the 2010 health care reform law. Apparently, the GOP would like to see millions of Americans to go without insurance and access to medical care in order to win a political "victory" over President Obama.
Perhaps the most cynical sabotage attempt of all is an advertising campaign by the billionaire front group Freedom Works to persuade the uninsured not to go on the exchanges and sign up for health insurance. Does anybody think these billionaires are advising their own children to go without health insurance? Will any of these billionaires cover the health care costs of those who foolishly follow their advice and then get sick or injured?
As it turns out, very few people are following this absurd advice from these billionaires. Recent estimates from nineteen states operating health insurance exchanges to help the uninsured find coverage show that at least 8.5 million will use the exchanges to buy insurance, a USA Today survey shows. That would far exceed the federal government's estimate of 7 million new customers for all fifty states under the 2010 health care law. This surge in insurance enrollment bodes well for Obama Care since the private insurance companies providing coverage under the new law need healthy people to enroll to round out the costs of those with chronic health conditions.
Myth: The one year delay of the employer mandate indicates that Obama Care is imploding and the law will self-destruct.
Reality. The GOP reacted with glee when the Obama Administration decided to delay the employer mandate for one year. This delay was requested by the Chamber of Commerce - a long time GOP ally. Moreover, this one-year delay won't really change things very much since it only really applies to the employer mandate's reporting requirements and effects 1% of all businesses in the U.S.
Myth: Obama Care isn't helping anybody.
Reality: Obama Care has already delivered benefits to millions of people since the law's passage over three years ago:
- • Up to 17 million children with pre-existing health conditions can no longer be denied coverage by private health insurance companies.
- • 6.6 million young adults have taken advantage of Obama Care to obtain insurance coverage through their parents' plans.
- • 105 million Americans no longer have an arbitrary lifetime limit on their health insurance coverage.
- • 6.1 million seniors have saved nearly $6 billion on their prescription drug costs.
- • Consumers have received $1.1 billion in rebates from their health insurance companies.
- • The small business tax credit has already been used by 360,000 businesses to insure 2 million people.
The immediate path ahead:
When Congress returns from yet another vacation next month, there will be two significant pieces of business they will have to take care of. The funding for the government runs out on October 1 and the debt ceiling will have to be raised sometime in November. Failure to do so will result in serious damage to the economy and a double dip recession. Most economists have said that defaulting on the full faith and credit of the U.S. could cause a stock market collapse like the one we had in 2008-2009.
Unfortunately, many Republican members of Congress are threatening to shutdown the government and default on our country's debts unless President Obama agrees to defund Obama Care. In other words, the GOP is threatening to crash the economy in a reckless, last ditch effort to stop Obama Care. As Representative Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said: “Threatening to shut down the government is like playing with fire. Threatening to default on our debt obligations is the economic equivalent of playing with nuclear weapons."
Currently, there is a split in the Nebraska Congressional delegation on a government shutdown. This idea is so extreme that Johanns and Fortenberry have come out against it. (These guys aren't exactly liberal.)
On the other hand, Fischer, Terry and Smith have all come out in favor of a government shutdown. What that means then is that these three irresponsible members of Congress have threatened to cause intentional harm to the constituents that they represent. What they're trying to do is instigate a phony budget crisis, and threatening to cause an economic meltdown, on purpose, unless millions of Americans are stripped of their health insurance coverage.
What explains this Republican desperation to stop Obama Care at all costs is their deep-seated fear that this new program might actually work. Already in Massachusetts, Romney Care has been a big success. Approximately 98% of Massachusetts residents are insured, the number of employers offering health insurance has increased, and approval for the program outweighs disapproval by almost a 2-1 margin. The Massachusetts experience is relevant because a former Romney health care adviser has said that Obama Care and Romney Care are the "same bill."
The impending success of Obama Care is the GOP's ultimate nightmare because it will prove that the government can do things that help the American people. I predict that in about 10 to 20 years, the GOP will claim they were for Obama Care all along - they just had some minor technical objections to the bill in 2010 but overall they were for it. After all, Obama Care was hatched in the Heritage Foundation and was first implemented by the GOP's 2012 Presidential nominee. We here at the Nebraska Democratic Party believe that "Obama Cares" will ultimately become the appropriate term for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Last month, Nebraska State Democratic Party Chairman Vince Powers caused a bit of a stir when he told Nebraska Watchdog that: “We don’t want to be Kansas.” Powers said: "Kansas is now espousing one radical view of government where conservative Republicans get primaried by Tea Party candidates.” Nebraska GOP State Party Chairman J.L. Spray responded by lecturing the Nebraska Democratic Party to "Be nice" and maintained that: “There is no evidence of that here.” What Spray apparently doesn't know is that Kansas is now wrestling with a $700 million budget hole created by the passage of a radical tax cut scheme by the GOP controlled legislature. Moreover, Spray appears to be unconcerned about well financed special interest groups that want to make Nebraska more like Kansas.
The origin of Kansas' severe budget woes can be found in a big tax cut passed in 2012 that will gradually cut personal income tax rates over several years and eventually eliminate the state income tax entirely. In addition, the Kansas legislature abolished state taxes on income from some investments for around 200,000 small businesses. It was hoped that this tax cut that (largely favored the wealthy) would put more money in the hands of small-business owners, who would then invest that money into new jobs and new equipment, improving Kansas' standing as tax-friendly for business. When the bill passed, Governor Sam Brownback boasted: "“Look out, Texas. Here comes Kansas!"
Unfortunately for Kansas, the hoped for supply side miracle hasn't happened. Instead, Kansas is now stuck with a huge $700 million budget deficit and no realistic plan to eliminate it. Thus far, no new businesses have re-located to Kansas to take advantage of this tax cut and all they have to show for this tax cut are rumors about companies considering moves to Kansas. In a desperate effort to solve this self inflicted budget crisis, the GOP controlled legislature has made a series of regressive moves like increasing sales taxes, cutting back on a state tax deduction for mortgage interest, and increasing tuition rates at Kansas state universities.
Despite the abject failure of Kansas' tax cut scheme, there are well heeled special interests that would like to make Nebraska more like Kansas. The Nebraska Chamber of Commerce and Industry has proposed that Nebraska reduce its top state income rate from 6.84% to 5.5%. In addition, the Chamber would like to see the top state corporate rate reduced from 7.81% to 5.56%.
The Chamber would offset the revenue losses by limiting state budget increases to .5 percent below the expected increase in state tax revenues. That kind of strait jacket on spending isn't realistic and would likely increase taxes for the majority of Nebraska residents while reducing the funding base for vital services in our communities like universities, schools, hospitals, law enforcement, and maintaining our roads and bridges.
The non-partisan Open Sky Policy Institute said that the Chamber's proposed tax cuts would cost the state $339 million in revenue and approximately 40% of that revenue would leave the state. OpenSky Executive Director Renee Fry said that the $134 million that would depart the state is now used to fund education and other state services. In addition, Fry said the Chamber's plan might require an increase in sales and property taxes, which hit low- and middle-income earners the hardest.
There isn't a need for the kinds of extreme tax changes in Nebraska like the one we saw in Kansas or the one being proposed by the Nebraska Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Nebraska currently enjoys a budget surplus, one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country and a healthy agricultural sector. The pro-business CNBC network recently ranked Nebraska number 4 out of all 50 states in its environment for doing business. CNBC stated that: "A big part of the Nebraska points total comes courtesy of Business Friendliness, a category in which it ranks third overall. Nebraska finished fourth in Economy and Best Quality of Life also."
It's obvious that Nebraska isn't like Kansas for all of the right reasons. The 2014 election cycle will may very well determine whether or not we preserve the good life here in Nebraska or whether we adopt the kinds of regressive and radical tax schemes that were passed in Kansas with disastrous results. Next year, we will have a competitive governor's race and 17 open seats in the Unicameral. We have preserved the good life here in Nebraska due to our recent successes in legislative elections. Democratic State Senators have led the way in the Unicameral and have been instrumental in passing responsible budgets and property tax cuts aimed at helping a majority of Nebraskans.
We simply can't take any of our recent electoral and legislative success for granted. All will be at stake next year. Due to the wide open governor's race and the many open legislative seats, 2014 will be the most important election cycle in a very long time. If we are to defeat the special interest groups, we will need to work hard to elect a Democratic governor and more Democratic state senators. We should expect the Republicans and their corporate allies to spend an immense amount of money in the hopes of making Nebraska more like Kansas. We may be outspent by the right wing but they can't out work us. That's what it will take to preserve the good life here in Nebraska.
State Senator Annette Dubas electrified the Nebraska political world when she announced last week she is going to join former UNL Regent Chuck Hassebrook in the Democratic gubernatorial primary contest. Senator Dubas said that, "By the end of September, I'll be ready to come out with all the details of my campaign." The Democratic field now appears to be set and the Republican field appears to be coming into focus.
Senator Dubas has been married to Ronald for 37 years and they have had four children. Dubas and her husband have farmed and ranched together for over three decades. Dubas said that: "We've done it all our whole married lives." Dubas was initially elected to the Unicameral in 2006 and ran unopposed for re-election in 2010. Senator Dubas is currently serving as chairwoman of the influential Transportation and Telecommunications Committee.
Dubas' greatest accomplishment was in the pipeline special session of the Legislature in 2011. Senator Dubas showed leadership when she responded to the groundswell of opposition to TransCanada's plans to build the pipeline by introducing a bill that would give the state routing authority over oil pipelines. The bill gave the Public Service Commission authority to review major pipeline projects - especially those which could affect natural resources. "The state should have the authority to interact with these types of projects," Dubas said in a statement. "We cannot leave here doing nothing." This legislation was in follow up of other attempts by Dubas to intervene on the siting of the pipeline.
Thanks to the hard work of Senator Dubas (and other Senators), the results of the special session in November 2011 were a success. TransCanada agreed to route the pipeline around the Sandhills and the Ogallala Aquifer, and the Legislature gave the state authority to regulate future pipelines that may be built in Nebraska. Due to the leadership of Senator Dubas, what started out as a long shot became a historic victory that rerouted the pipeline away from our groundwater.
Dubas has also been a leader in the Unicameral on wind energy. Earlier this year, Senator Dubas co-sponsored a bill with Senator Lathrop that provided a production tax credit for new sources of renewable energy under the Nebraska Advantage Act. This bill eventually passed by an overwhelming margin and proponents said the measure would make the state competitive for projects that are now going to neighboring states where such breaks are already offered. This new wind energy law is already bearing fruit since a Kansas company is planning what could turn into a $400 million wind farm in Dixon County, Nebraska. This company hopes to begin construction by the end of the year.
Dubas' entry into the race sets up what could be an exciting primary election that will only strengthen the eventual Democratic nominee. "This is outstanding," said Vince Powers, Chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party. "A competitive primary focuses attention on the candidates." Powers also said a primary will encourage the candidates to put together an organization and begin to build support. The winner will be in a stronger position to run against the GOP candidate in the fall, Powers said. "From a political standpoint, it's great. Both Annette and Chuck have to go out and campaign. They have to get their organizations together, and they're going to have to be sharp," Powers said.
The entry of both Dubas and Hassebrook into the gubernatorial race is a strong indicator that the GOP field is a weak one. State Senator Charlie Janssen's campaign has been marked by harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric and several gaffes.
As for the other GOP candidates, political bloggers have questioned Charles Herbster's Nebraska residency due to the incongruity of his home in Falls City that is worth $18,000.00 vs. his pricey home in the Kansas City, Missouri area, where one of his companies is based. Little known State Senator Tom Carlson also recently kicked off his gubernatorial campaign. In his announcement speech, Carlson came out for more tax cuts for the wealthy and a reduction in unemployment compensation benefits for the poor. There is also increasing speculation that TD Ameritrade heir and executive Pete Ricketts will soon jump into the race. Ricketts ran a failed Senate bid in 2006 that the Washington Post said was the worst run race in that election cycle.
The 2014 election cycle promises to be an important and potentially successful election cycle for Nebraska Democrats. Due to term limits, there are 17 open seats in the Unicameral. In addition, we will also be having our most competitive gubernatorial primary since 1990 when Ben Nelson was ultimately elected governor. A contested primary tells me that the gubernatorial election is very winnable for the eventual Democratic nominee. We wouldn't have two top drawer candidates in the race if our nominee didn't have an excellent chance of winning the general election. In 1990, Jim Exon was asked why there was a primary contest among Democrats for Governor. Jim Exon answered: "Because it matters - the winner will be governor."
That's what Casey Stengel - one of baseball's all-time great managers - said about the 1962 New York Mets. The 1962 Mets were probably the worst team in Major League Baseball history, losing 120 games out of a possible 162 that year. One could ask that same question about the current Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The current House majority is probably the worst majority in the history of that institution. Since the new House was inaugurated in January, we've seen seven months of chaos, gridlock and dysfunction. The House majority simply hasn't been doing the business of the American people. Just what has the GOP controlled House tried to do or has actually gotten done? What impact has it had on the U.S. economy? What can we do about it?
The House Republicans have spent a lot of time on vacation this year and when they're in session, most of their so-called "legislating" is spent on passing ultra-right wing messaging bills that have no chance of ever becoming law. For example, late last week, the House voted on the repeal of Obama Care for the 40th time. This followed symbolic votes on several bills designed to embarrass President Obama featuring silly titles such as "Keep the IRS Off Your Health Care Act" and "Stop Playing on Citizen's Cash Act." The House wasted it's time on these bills even though there is still no agreement on a farm bill, no plan on how to fund the government after September and no progress on immigration reform. All John Boehner succeeded in doing was further embarrassing the incompetent GOP House majority.
The failure of the GOP controlled House to take its legislative duties seriously has had negative, real world consequences. The most recent jobs report was a bit of disappointment since 162,000 jobs were created during July. Until now, the economy had been creating an average of 200,000 jobs per month in 2013. (Nevertheless, the unemployment rate declined to 7.4 percent in July - the lowest since December 2008.) Most economists have indicated that the federal automatic spending cuts or the sequester has been an impediment to faster economic growth. (Johanns, Fortenberry, Terry and Smith all voted for the sequester in 2011. Fisher also supports the sequester.)
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has reported that keeping the sequester cuts through 2014 would cost the economy as many as 1.6 million jobs. If Congress repeals sequestration, the economy could add between 300,000 and 1.6 million jobs, with around 900,000 being the most likely number. Unfortunately, Speaker Boehner has indicated that the House GOP won't budge on ending the sequester spending cuts unless President Obama and the Democrats agree to a new set of spending cuts favored by the GOP. Boehner hasn't proposed any specific alternative cuts that he supports but the GOP would like to see the defense cuts restored and replaced with even more spending cuts in Social Security, Medicare and other domestic programs.
This refusal to compromise by the Republicans in the House has put the passage of a farm bill in serious jeopardy. Earlier this year, the Senate passed a farm bill by a wide margin with bi-partisan support. Over in the House, the GOP took the unprecedented step of breaking the farm bill into two pieces. One piece of legislation contained subsidies to the agricultural industry. The second piece included $20 billion in food-stamp cuts, along with drug tests for recipients. (In the past, for decades, the farm bill included both agricultural subsidies and the food stamp program.) The House passed the agricultural subsidies but failed to pass the food stamps portion because it didn't cut spending enough to satisfy the extreme Tea Party faction.
Instead of opening up bi-partisan negotiations to pass a compromise farm bill, the House has decided to double down on its extremism and will now try to pass a bill that will cut $40 billion from the food stamp program. Representative Collin C. Peterson (D-MN), the ranking Democrat on the Agriculture Committee said that: " Apparently, the Republican leadership plans to bring up yet another political messaging bill to nowhere in an effort to try and placate the extreme right wing of their party. Clearly they have no interest in compromise or actual legislating...I've repeatedly told these guys, we don't have to do this. If the House would just name conferees, members can conference the House 'farm only' bill with the Senate's farm bill during August and produce a compromise for both Houses to pass. Through today's action, the House Majority has clearly shown they have no interest in getting a farm bill done. The American people should be outraged."
The American people should also be outraged about the House Republicans' antics on the budget. Earlier this year, the House passed the extreme Ryan budget that would supposedly balance the budget in ten years by privatizing Medicare and making a series of across the board spending cuts that make the sequester look generous in comparison. All five Nebraska Republicans have voted for the Ryan plan. Last week, the House attempted to pass a transportation funding bill that would've actually implemented the draconian cuts from the Ryan plan into a real bill. As it turned out, the spending cuts were too deep for most of the Republicans and the bill was pulled from the floor by the House leadership. What this failure tells us is that the GOP's demands for deep spending cuts were always a ruse - when the time came to actually pass specific spending cuts, the House Republicans discovered that cutting spending is unpopular and difficult.
Additional failures on the budget by the GOP House majority could have catastrophic effects on the economy. By the end of September, the federal government is going to run out of money. In addition, later this fall, the debt ceiling will have to be raised again. Already, some Republican members of the House (and Senate) are talking about shutting down the government and refusing to raise the debt ceiling in a last ditch attempt to stop the implementation of Obama Care.
Representative Lee Terry hasn't ruled out a government shutdown saying that: "Republicans shouldn't give up any leverage they have to negotiate with the administration on the issue." Obviously, shutting down the government or refusing to raise the debt ceiling would crash the stock market and cause another recession.
This idea of threatening to hurt the economy for political gain is so radical that even many prominent Republicans are speaking out against it. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) warned House Republicans against using the debt limit fight to gain the repeal of Affordable Care Act, which he said "is not going to happen." Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) contended that the Republicans could risk losing control of the House in next year's elections if they move to shut down the government or default on the debt during budget negotiations with President Barack Obama. "The only way Republicans will lose the House is to shut down the government or default on the debt," the Oklahoma Representative said. "Shutting down the government is not in the best interests of the American people and it makes you look politically irresponsible."
The cause of this Republican irresponsibility in Washington is the right wing media. Every day on a 24/7 basis, the voters who are most likely to show up for a GOP primary election are taking in the right wing media's apocalyptic message that Obama is dooming the country and the only way for the GOP to save the country is refuse to compromise with the Democrats. What has happened is that the right wing media has made the GOP base radical. As a result, Republican members of Congress fear a primary challenge from the right more than they fear a General Election challenge from a Democrat. What we have here is a major political party that is run by the entertainers on Fox News and A.M. radio. As former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum said: "Republicans originally thought that Fox worked for us and now we're discovering we work for Fox. And this balance here has been completely reversed. The thing that sustains a strong Fox network is the thing that undermines a strong Republican party."
The only way we can bring an end to this reckless and irresponsible House majority is to replace Fortenberry, Terry and Smith. These three Nebraska House Republicans have shown no leadership and have been complicit in the dysfunction in the House of Representatives. In the 3rd Congressional District, Mark Sullivan is already mounting a vigorous challenge to Adrian Smith. In the 2nd Congressional District, Pete Festersen and Larry Bradley are both considering challenges to vulnerable incumbent Lee Terry. These are winnable races because most voters are completely fed up with the Republicans in the House of Representatives. The only way to end the job killing gridlock in Washington is to vote out the Republican majority and replace them with representatives who are serious about helping the country. We need to vote Democratic for a change in 2014.
One of the most unfairly maligned institutions today are labor unions. We constantly hear the right wing say that they aren't necessary anymore and many of them even go so far as to describe union members as "thugs." In reality, unions are the only check and balance on the political and economic power of the corporations and the wealthy. Among other things, union members are policemen, firefighters, teachers, nurses, construction workers, hotel workers, professional athletes, and autoworkers. Union members are our family members, friends, and neighbors. How have unions helped the middle class and our country? Just who is attacking unions? What have been the real world consequences of the decline in union membership?
If you have enjoyed your most recent weekend or paid day off, you can thank a union. We can all thank unions for things we enjoy:
-The five-day work week.
- Fair wages and relative economic equality - unions raise average wages for their members and they also indirectly raise wages for similar non-union workers.
- The minimum wage.
- The end of child labor.
- Widespread employer based health coverage.
- Occupational safety.
- Workers compensation.
- Overtime pay.
- Retirement pension plans.
- Maternity Leave.
A study of history teaches us that the workplace was not always fair or safe. Thanks to organized labor, workers were able to come together as a cohesive group and convince previous Congresses to pass laws that benefited all workers. Unions also play a pivotal role in organizing and turning out working class voters who will support candidates who will protect the middle class. Unions also make significant political contributions to candidates who prioritize the interests of working Americans rather than the wealthy and corporations.
Unfortunately, these hard won gains by the unions have been under assault for over thirty years by the corporations, the wealthy and the Republican Party. Beginning in the 1970s, big business began to play a larger role in American politics. Since that time, the corporations and the wealthy have literally contributed billions of dollars to candidates who are committed to destroying unions and reducing the rights and earning power of middle class Americans. Union membership has declined from a peak of 30% in 1960 to approximately 11% today.
These rights won by organized labor - which many Americans take for granted - are constantly being challenged by the GOP. Just a few months ago, the House of Representatives passed a bill on a straight party line vote that would relax rules requiring businesses to pay their employees overtime when they work more than 40 hours in a week. Unsurprisingly, all three Nebraska House Republicans voted for it. This legislation would weaken federal overtime laws, allowing for "comp" time instead of pay for private sector employees who work more than 40 hours in a week. The House Democrats labeled it the "More Work, Less Pay Act."
This all-out assault on the middle class by the wealthy and the GOP has had negative consequences for the middle class and all Americans. The economic impact of this decline in the political influence of the middle class is disturbing. We have seen an economically stagnant middle class, a steady reduction of job-related health and retirement benefits and ever rising economic inequality. When labor was at its numerical peak around 1960, the wealthiest 10% earned 33% of the nation's income. By 2007, with the labor movement greatly diminished, the wealthiest 10% grabbed 50% of the nation's income. Today, wages account for the lowest share of both GDP and corporate revenue since 1945 and that share continues to decline.
A rising ride is said to raise all boats but because of the right wing’s assault on organized labor, our country now has the highest level of inequality since 1928. It was no coincidence that our nation experienced its most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression at the same time we had high levels of economic inequality. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich has contended that that there are three causal connections between inequality and crashes: "First, the rich spend a smaller proportion of their wealth than the less affluent, and so when more and more wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of the wealthy, there is less overall spending and less overall manufacturing to meet consumer needs. Second, in both the Roaring 20s and 2000-2007 period, the middle class incurred a lot of debt to pay for the things they wanted, as their real wages were stagnating and they were getting a smaller and smaller piece of the pie. In other words, they had less and less wealth, and so they borrowed more and more to make up the difference. And third, since the wealthy accumulated more, they wanted to invest more, so a lot of money poured into speculative investments, leading to huge bubbles, which eventually burst."
The key to a dynamic and growing economy is a confident middle class with money to spend. The consumers of the middle class are the job creators - it is not the top 1% that is lionized by the GOP. This is because consumer spending generates approximately 70% of economic activity. One of the leading causes of our current slow economic growth is the diminished earning power of the middle class. The best way to improve economic growth is for the middle class to have higher incomes and more spending power. America needs unions now more than ever. The key to a prosperous middle class is a re-vitalized union movement. We need to grow from the middle class out.
We Democrats must get the message out to our family, friends and civic groups to which we belong that unions are good for the middle class and good for America. We must do everything we can to counter the pervasive and false propaganda about unions coming from the corporations and their allies in the GOP and the right wing media. We must also continue to work for candidates who support the middle class. If the union movement dies out, America's middle class dies with it. The stakes are that high.
One of the more pernicious talking points from the GOP over the years has been their claim that Social Security and Medicare are going broke, and we can't afford these programs. The
right wing has been perpetrating this
myth for years because they oppose these successful and popular programs. The GOP and their wealthy
benefactors don't want the American
people to realize that government can help people and be a force for good. Just what kinds of predictions
have the GOP been making about the future
of Social Security and Medicare? Just how solvent are these programs?
What we can do to make sure these programs will continue to be secure?
Just one year after the passage of Social Security - during the heat of the 1936 Presidential campaign - GOP Presidential nominee Alf Landon said that: "If the present compulsory insurance plan remains in force, our old people are only too apt to find the cupboard bare." George W. Bush predicted in 1978 that Social Security would go broke in 1988 unless Congress privatized the system. Closer to home and more recently, GOP Senate hopeful Ben Sasse claimed that: "entitlement reform must be addressed now before those programs, if not restructured, collapse of their own weight."
The Republicans' predictions on the future solvency of Medicare have been equally wrong. In 1983, Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) alleged that: "Medicare can be bankrupt in 2 1/2 years unless some way is found to put the brakes on its burgeoning costs." In his 1986 memoirs, former U.S. Senator Carl Curtis (R-NE) claimed that Medicare would be broke and unable to pay medical bills no later than 1991. The so-called "liberal mainstream media" has even got into act. For example, the New York Times predicted in 1989 that Medicare would "become insolvent in the next decade or so." Despite this long history of erroneous predictions about Medicare, the GOP persists in making them. Just last year, Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) told Fox News, "We know that Medicare is going broke by 2024."
What Senator Ayotte and other Republicans probably don't know is that the future viability of Medicare is improving largely thanks to ObamaCare. The annual Medicare trustees report indicated that the viability of Medicare has been extended by two years, projected to remain fully solvent until 2026. (Last year's projection was 2024.) According to Marilyn Tavenner, who runs the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the extension is attributable to ObamaCare. Tavenner said that: "Thanks to the Affordable Care Act, we are taking important steps to improve the delivery of care for seniors with Medicare. These reforms aim to reduce spending while improving the quality of care, and are an important down payment on solving Medicare's long term financial issues."
The positive effect that ObamaCare has been having on the future solvency of Medicare was confirmed by a recent report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office which indicated that hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending for Medicare (and Medicaid) are being removed from government projections as federal healthcare spending is now expected to be a full 15 percent less than what had been initially budgeted for 2013. The surprisingly low spending projections come as the growth in healthcare spending has hit a new low for the fourth consecutive year. A continuation of this trend has the potential to reduce future budget projections by trillions of dollars. Healthcare experts are now beginning to recognize that ObamaCare may, in fact, be contributing to the good news on the slowdown in healthcare spending - an important development since bending the cost curve was a primary goal of Obama Care.
The future prospects for Social Security are equally bright. At the present time, Social Security is in a position to pay all benefits owed until 2033. In the unlikely event no changes are made to Social Security in the next twenty years, this program will still be in a position to pay around 78% of all promised benefits. However, one modest change could keep Social Security viable for the next 75 years. If the Social Security earnings cap of $113,700.00 was lifted and all earnings were subject to the payroll tax, the Social Security Trust Fund would remain solvent until 2088.
For decades, the Republicans have falsely predicted the demise of Social Security and Medicare because these programs have been so successful. Thanks to these programs, the poverty rate for Americans over age 65 has been reduced from over 50% to 9%. Due to Social Security and Medicare, most of our country's senior citizens now enjoy a middle class standard of living or better. The Republicans oppose these programs because they prove that government can work.
The right wing likes to claim that we can't afford these retirement security programs and we have to cut them to solve our budget problems. (As I discussed in a recent article, our budget problems have been largely solved.) When conservatives talk about the "need" to cut spending, they're really talking about cutting spending they simply don't agree with. These same so-called "fiscal conservatives" continue to support huge tax cuts for the wealthy and run away defense spending.
The radical right's "solutions" for Social Security and Medicare consist of privatizing them and turning them over to Wall Street and the health insurance industry, respectively. All five of Nebraska's Congressional Republicans have voted to turn Medicare into a voucher program, bring back pre-existing condition clauses and require senior citizens to buy private health insurance. This so-called "solution" would cost the average senior citizen an additional $6,000.00 to $8,000.00 out of pocket medical expenses on an annual basis.
We Democrats need to constantly remind the voters that Social Security and Medicare are safe in our hands. Our party is committed to maintaining these programs, and protecting the middle class and the least fortunate among us. The biggest threat to our safety net for senior citizens is the radicalized Republican Party. In the 2014 election cycle, our Senate and Congressional candidates need to campaign hard against Medicare and Social Security privatization, and remind the voters that these vital programs will only go "broke" if the GOP is returned to power.
In a recent interview with Nebraska Watchdog, Nebraska GOP Chairman J.L. Spray asserted that the Nebraska "economy is doing great" largely due to the leadership of Governor Dave Heineman and "not because of anything the national government has done." This surprising statement from Spray indicates that he needs to do his homework and become better acquainted with economic issues. Just what (if anything) has Heineman done for the Nebraska economy? Has the federal government truly had nothing to do with Nebraska's good economy?
Heineman likes to claim credit for the good economy in Nebraska since he's been in office. It's true that Nebraska has been largely insulated from the economic malaise in other parts of the country and that our state has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. However, Heineman really has had nothing to do with the current state of Nebraska's economy. The major reason for Nebraska's economic success has been the rise in commodity prices and the increase in farmland values over the last four years. The major factors behind that are international economic trends that have nothing to do with the Heineman Administration.
What about the Nebraska Advantage Act? Heineman likes to tell us that Nebraska's tax environment has a lot to do with the state's economic success. What Heineman doesn't mention is that a recent report from the Nebraska Department of Revenue says that three of every four jobs subsidized by the Act would have been created without incentives that cost the state $42 million in revenue in 2010-2011. The previous year, only one out of 10 jobs were identified as truly new jobs created by the subsidies, which cost the state $42 million in revenue, according to the report.
Another thing that Heineman likes to take credit for is the fact that Nebraska has balanced its budget every year he has been governor. What he doesn't mention is that he had no choice but to balance the budget, since Nebraska's Constitution requires a balanced budget. Moreover, the federal government made it possible for Heineman and the Unicameral to balance the budget during the dark days of 2009-10 when the national economy was undergoing the deepest downturn since the Great Depression during the 1930s. What Heineman doesn't want you to know is that in 2009 and 2010, Nebraska's budget was balanced with hundreds of millions of federal dollars from the 2009 Recovery Act. This massive infusion of federal money prevented the layoff of Nebraska state employees and even more severe program cuts. The federal stimulus money tided Nebraska over until the economy began to improve in 2011-12. Only Texas was more dependent upon stimulus funds in 2009-10 than Nebraska.
The funds from the 2009 Recovery Act didn't only go to help balance the state budget. That money also helped pay for the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, the UNL Innovation Campus, the expansion at Strat Comm and improvements at many rural hospitals. Many Nebraskans would probably be surprised at how much the stimulus funds helped the state. All in all, approximately $380 million in stimulus funds were spent in Nebraska in 2009-10.
We should all thank Senator Ben Nelson for supporting the 2009 Recovery Act. At the time of the vote on the stimulus bill, there were 58 Democratic Senators. The Democrats didn't have a 60-vote filibuster proof majority. That means that every vote counted. It is evident that Senator Nelson recognized the gravity of the economic crisis and made the wise decision to support this vital legislation that helped end the national recession and has continued to benefit the economy to this very day. Ben Nelson's vote in favor of the 2009 stimulus bill will be an important part of his positive legacy as our U.S. Senator.
The federal government also provides significant assistance to the Nebraska economy through its various agricultural subsidy programs. Nebraska's farmers and ranchers have collected $16.4 billion in subsidies since 1995. Those payments have consisted of: $10.8 billion in commodity subsidies, $3.19 billion in crop insurance subsidies, $1.54 billion in conservation subsidies, and $817 million in disaster subsidies. As a matter of fact, Nebraska ranks 5th out of 50 States in the collection of agriculture subsidies.
Never mentioned by the Nebraska GOP is that U.S. Senator Deb Fischer has been the recipient of a lucrative grazing subsidy for over 30 years. Senator Fischer is among a handful of Nebraska ranchers whose cattle graze on federal land at prices some say amounts to a significant federal giveaway. Deb Fischer and her husband lease 11,724 acres of federal land in Nebraska for about $4,700 for seven months - paying about $110,000 less than the market rate for private land in Cherry County. The Fischer’s have benefited from this federal program for approximately 30 years and only around 2% of the cattle raised in this country feed on federal lands. What this means is that Fischer and her husband have been receiving a subsidy worth over $100,000.00 per year for three decades.
The 2009 Recovery Act and agricultural payments aren't the only federal programs that help Nebraska's economy. Social Security and Medicare also provide a big boost to our state's economy. Approximately 13.5% of Nebraska's population - or 243,000 Nebraskans - are senior citizens. Due to the relatively large number of senior citizens in Nebraska, the Census Bureau has deemed that Nebraska has a "high level of senior citizens" in our population.
Social Security and Medicare are the most successful government programs in U.S. history. At the time, the Social Security Act was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935, poverty among the elderly exceeded 50%. Subsequently, Medicare was passed in 1965 so that senior citizens could have access to affordable insurance and good medical care. Thanks to these programs, the poverty rate for Americans over age 65 has been reduced to 9%. Due to Social Security and Medicare, most of Nebraska's senior citizens enjoy a middle class standard of living or better. That senior citizen spending power has created thousands of jobs in Nebraska.
It is obvious that the Nebraska GOP is out of touch with many of Nebraska's voters. They would lead you to believe that the federal government is the enemy. Instead, the federal government is a partner in progress for the people of Nebraska. Contrary to what they say on Fox News, we Democrats don't believe that the government is the solution to all of our problems. There are some things the private sector does very well like creating jobs and wealth. However, there are some things the private sector does very poorly - or not at all. The free market does a poor job of providing retirement and health care security for all of our citizens. That's why we have Social Security, Medicare and Obama Care.
In contrast, Republicans have this mystical belief that the free market is some kind of panacea for all of our problems. For example, the Republicans believe we should privatize Medicare and turn it into a voucher program. Ever since the time of Ronald Reagan, Republicans have regarded the government as the source of all our problems even though millions of them receive some kind of government assistance. Unfortunately, the GOP stance on the role of the free market and government simply isn't reality based.
We Democrats are the reality-based party. The Nebraska GOP is badly mistaken in its apparent belief that the federal government hasn't done Nebraska any good. We Democrats understand that life is more complex than that and believe that a mix of private and public solutions is what's needed to move our economy forward and to protect the least fortunate among us. A complete reliance upon the private sector to solve all of our problems will only result in more poverty, more people without insurance and an economic system that greatly favors the wealthy. As I frequently like to say, reality has a Progressive bias.
Shortly before President Obama took office, influential right wing entertainer Rush Limbaugh said that he hoped that President Obama would fail. The GOP followed Limbaugh's lead and settled on a strategy of all out obstruction that they have pursued ever since Obama took office. As Vice President Joe Biden said in early 2009: "I spoke to seven different Republican Senators, who said, "Joe, I'm not going to be able to help you on anything." His informants said that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had demanded unified resistance. "The way it was characterized to me was: `For the next two years, we can't let you succeed in anything. That's our ticket to coming back," Biden said.
Unfortunately, the GOP's rancid partisanship has escalated from all out obstruction to the outright sabotage of Obama Care. As we all know, Obama Care has already been helping millions of Americans. For example, 6.6 million young people are now on their parent's insurance policies and 17 million children with pre-existing conditions now have insurance coverage. The main elements of the law will take effect on January 1, 2014, when approximately 30 million uninsured people will gain insurance coverage. However, the GOP has begun to do everything they can to obstruct the law of the land and has been taking actions that would deprive millions of Americans of insurance coverage. Is there any precedent in recent history of the sabotage of the implementation of a new law? Just what actions have the GOP taken to undermine the 2010 health care law? What can we Democrats do about it?
The Republican effort to sabotage Obama Care is unprecedented in modern U.S. history. The most recent example of the implementation of a complex new health care law was the Medicare Part D program during the Bush Administration. When Medicare Part D was considered in Congress, the Bush White House lied about its cost and the Congressional Republicans used ugly tactics to force through this legislation in the middle of the night. Most Democrats opposed the bill because it provided unnecessary taxpayer subsidies to the already very profitable insurance and drug companies, and it was financed on the national credit card.
The Republicans controlled the White House and the Congress when the Medicare Part D program passed in 2003 and the Democrats lost the fight. As Congressional expert Norman Ornstein said about this legislative battle: "Democrats were furious with how the Medicare prescription drug bill passed. But once it was law, they weren't going to punish needy seniors to sabotage Bush's accomplishment." The Democrats didn't unnecessarily hurt millions of senior citizens in the hopes of making Bush look bad. That would've been cruel and outrageous.
In contrast, today's Congressional Republicans have been making efforts to punish millions of uninsured Americans in order to gain some perceived partisan political advantage over President Obama and the Democrats. In Washington, the Republican members of Congress have starved the implementation of Obama Care of funds. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the health care reform law will require between $5 billion and $10 billion to get the law up and running over the next decade. The Administration has repeatedly requested additional funds from Congress to assist in the implementation but has been turned down by the Republicans in the House.
The Republicans' attempt to sabotage Obama Care has extended to the intimidation of the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, PGA, and NASCAR. The Obama Administration contacted these sports leagues and asked them to help spread the word about the new law so that people would sign up for the health insurance exchanges. In contacting these sports leagues, the Obama Administration was following the precedent set by then Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney who partnered up with the Boston Red Sox to inform Massachusetts residents about the benefits of Romney Care. (In 2005, the Bush Administration ran a similar campaign to let seniors know about the Medicare drug benefit.) However, the Senate Republican leaders have now thwarted a similar campaign from the Obama Administration and have bullied the sports leagues into not cooperating with HHS in informing people about Obama Care. (http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/07/02/19250594-unsportsmanlike-conduct-on-health-care-policy?lite)
This ongoing GOP effort to ruin the new health care law sank to a new low when several Republican members of Congress indicated that they will not assist constituents in understanding the law and obtaining benefits. Instead, these churlish Republicans will tell their constituents to call the Obama Administration for help. "Given that we come from Kansas, it's much easier to say, 'Call your former governor,'" said Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS), referring to HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. "You say, 'She's the one. She's responsible. She was your governor, elected twice, and now you reelected the president, but he picked her.'" Huelskamp stated. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) even said: "We know how to forward a phone call." This marks a new low even for the Republicans since members of Congress regularly help their constituents with other federal programs like Social Security and Medicare. (http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/305777-gop-to-constituents-questions-on-obamacare-call-obama)
The Republicans' attempt to deprive millions of Americans of health insurance coverage guaranteed by Obama Care has even extended into the states. The battle we saw earlier this year in Nebraska over the Medicaid expansion has played out in many other states. Currently twenty-three states and the District of Columbia have decided to accept the expansion, which is fully financed by Washington for the first three years and phases down gradually to a 90 percent federal share. However, a number of Republican controlled states – including Texas, Florida and Georgia - have rejected the Medicaid expansion. What that means is that approximately 2 in 3 uninsured low-income people who would qualify for subsidized coverage under Obama Care may be out of luck next year because the Republicans in their states have blocked the Medicaid expansion. An Associated Press analysis of figures from the Urban Institute finds a big coverage gap developing, with 9.7 million out of 15 million potentially eligible adults living in states that are refusing the expansion or are still undecided. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/federal_government/states-rejection-of-expanded-medicaid-could-leave-2-of-3-eligible-low-income-people-in-a-fix/2013/07/01/1df2aed0-e272-11e2-8657-fdff0c195a79_story.html)
The Republicans attempt to undermine Obama Care and hurt millions of people who lack insurance is unpatriotic. What we can do as Democrats to push back is to encourage the churches and civic organizations in which we're involved to publicize the benefits of the health care law. We can also encourage elected officials in local governments to issue public service announcements about how to sign up for the health insurance exchanges. (The Obama Administration has already begun to enlist sympathetic local government officials in the cause.)
During next year's legislative session, we need to once again contact our State Senators and encourage them to vote for the Medicaid expansion. My contacts in the Unicameral in both parties indicate to me that there is a better than even chance next year that the legislature will pass a version of the Medicaid expansion that has private insurance companies administering the coverage. This version of the Medicaid expansion would probably be more costly but it would provide better reimbursement rates to health care providers and would provide them with real incentives to take on more Medicaid patients.
We are the party of the people and genuine patriotism. The Democratic Party is all that stands between most Americans and a radically altered social and economic system that only serves the ultra-wealthy and the big corporations. We will do everything we can to ensure that the implementation of Obama Care is a success that improves the lives of millions of Americans.
Immigration Reform Will Reduce The Deficit, Help The Economy And Strengthen Social Security And Medicare
Last week a comprehensive immigration reform bill passed the Senate by a 68-32 margin. Fourteen Republican Senators crossed party lines to join all 54 Democratic Senators in
voting for passage of this landmark
legislation. (Johanns and Fischer both voted no.) However, the hard part lies ahead. Immigration reform
must now pass a Republican controlled
House in which the extreme Tea Party faction holds sway over many Republican House members. Just what is in
this bill? How will immigration reform help the country? What
obstacles lie ahead in the House of Representatives?
The basic elements in the Senate's comprehensive immigration reform legislation consists of the following:
Significantly enhanced border security, including doubling the number of agents patrolling the southern border.
Granting legal status to many of the 11 million aspiring citizens, who meet certain requirements, along with a path to citizenship.
Expanded immigrant visa programs, and expanded programs for nonimmigrant visas including for H-1B (high-skilled) workers and for agricultural guest workers.
This watershed immigration legislation would also provide a significant boost to the U.S. economy in several important ways. As a starting point, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has found that immigration reform would reduce the deficit by $197 billion over 10 years and $700 billion over 20 years - savings produced by an influx of new workers and taxpayers in the U.S. economy. The C.B.O report also indicated that the bill would increase the size of the economy by 3.3 percent in 2023 and 5.4 percent by 2033. (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44225) President Obama said the CBO report "definitively showed that this bipartisan, common-sense bill will help the middle class grow our economy and shrink our deficits by making sure that every worker in America plays by the same set of rules and pays taxes like everyone else."
The influx of new taxpayers that immigration reform would bring to the U.S. would further shore up the financial solvency of Social Security and Medicare. According to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew: "As we bring millions of immigrants onto the payroll, that means hundreds of billions of dollars into the Social Security Trust Fund over the next 10 years. It means tens of billions of dollars into the Medicare Trust Fund."
Unfortunately, this wasn't good enough for the always difficult to please right wing Republicans in the Congress. As usual, the list of complaints from right wing Republicans opposing the bill was long, but the most-cited was what they falsely described as weak border security provisions. Senator Deb Fischer contended that: "Without a fully secure border, the United States will repeat the mistakes of the past and there will be no lasting solution."
Apparently, what Fischer and other right wingers don't know is that a bi-partisan amendment to the Senate's immigration bill would spend an additional $46 billion on border security by stationing an additional 20,000 border patrol agents on the southern border in addition to the 18,500 agents already deployed there. What this means is that there will be an agent every 1,000 feet along the southern border. Moreover, another 350 miles of fencing would be constructed (in addition to the 350 miles of fencing already on the ground).
Senator John McCain excoriated Fischer's profound ignorance of the contents of this legislation when he took the Senate floor last week and said the following: "I would just say to the senator from Nebraska, she is so ill-informed, the statement that I just saw, I don't know where to begin, except to say that if you don't think this legislation secures the border you haven't spent any time on the border, certainly not any meaningful time," McCain said. "And I can't express my disappointment in the series of false statements that the senator just made." Obviously, Senator Fischer hasn't read the bill.
The immigration reform bill now goes over to the House where the big question there is whether or not House Speaker Boehner will grant an up or down vote to this important legislation. The House of Representatives has an informal rule they call the "Hastert rule" which forbids an up or down vote on a bill unless it enjoys the support of a majority of Republicans. What this rule does is give veto power to the radical, nihilistic Tea Party faction in the GOP. Earlier this year, Boehner waived the Hastert rule and allowed up or down votes on the Fiscal Cliff Bill, Hurricane Sandy relief, and the Violence Against Women Act. Will Boehner do the same on immigration reform?
Boehner will be under tremendous pressure from the Tea Party faction in the House and the entertainers in the right wing media to refuse to grant an up or down vote. (Anybody remember during the Bush Administration when Republicans incessantly demanded up or down votes for his legislation and nominees?) As Representative Steve King (R-IA) said: "My position is don't bring anything to the floor. Nothing good can come from that." King told the Omaha World Herald that dozens - " even scores" - of House Republicans share his position. He said he will be looking to increase those numbers in the weeks ahead.
What we can do as Democrats is to call our House representatives and request that they sign a discharge petition that would allow an up or down vote on immigration reform. It is evident that a bi-partisan majority in the House supports this legislation that would reduce the deficit, boost the economy, and strengthen the finances of Social Security and Medicare. Only a technical, procedural rule stands between landmark legislation that would greatly help our country and continued dysfunction in the House GOP majority. In the longer term, we will have to work hard to elect more Democrats to Congress so we have a majority there that will heed the will of a majority of the American people.
One of the most interesting phenomena in contemporary American politics is the wildly erroneous predictions that have been made by Republican leaders over the last twenty years. Recent history makes it apparent that just about all of the GOP's predictions have proven to be wildly off the mark. Just what predictions has the GOP made? How did they turn out? What does that portend for the future?
Perhaps the most egregious GOP prediction was its bold and confident forecast in 1993 that President Clinton's economic plan would be a failure. Then House Minority Leader Newt Gingrich predicted: "I believe this will lead to a recession next year. This is the Democrat machine's recession. And each one of them will be held personally accountable." John Kasich (then a Republican congressman from Ohio, now that state's governor) contended that: "I feel bad for the people who really are the working people in this country, people in my family, who are going to get the penalties from people who don't want to invest more, take any more risks. They're going to lose their jobs, and that's the tragedy of this program. The proof will be in the pudding. We're going to come back here next year, there will be higher deficits, there will be more spending, we'll continue to have a very slow economy, people aren't going to go to work." It's important to note that this was not an isolated event—that Newt and his friends simply fell victim to some heat-of-the-moment hyperbole. This was the Republican Party's line for all of 1993, one repeated by senators, congressmen, talk shows hosts, activists, and state and local officials at every level of the ballot.
Just how did those Republican predictions of doom and gloom play out? As we know, they were dead wrong. What followed the passage of the 1993 Clinton budget package was the greatest peacetime economic boom in U.S. history. During the Clinton Presidency, 22 million new jobs were created, unemployment declined from 7% to 3%, median family income rose, and poverty declined to its lowest rate in 20 years. The Clinton budget also converted what was then the largest budget deficit in American history to the largest surplus.
The Republicans' predictions about how the economy would respond to Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts were equally wrong. During the Bush Administration, the GOP promised us that the Bush tax cuts would create an economic boom and pay for themselves. Unfortunately for our country, these predictions turned out to be wildly off the mark. According to the January 9, 2009, Wall Street Journal, Bush had the worst jobs creation record since Herbert Hoover. Only 3 million jobs were created during the Bush Presidency or around 31,000 jobs per month. At the same time, the $238 billion surplus created by President Clinton exploded into a $1.3 trillion deficit by the time President Obama took office in 2009.
The predictions coming from the GOP in the run up to the Iraq war in 2002-03 were tragically wrong. In an effort to convince the American people to back the invasion of Iraq, the Republicans told us that we would be greeted as liberators, the war would be over in a few weeks, it would only cost $50 billion, Iraqi oil would pay for the reconstruction of the country and we would find lots of weapons of mass destruction. As it turned out, the war lasted eleven years, cost $3 trillion and we didn't find any weapons of mass destruction.
The Republicans' forecasts haven't gotten any better since President Obama took office. In the last few months, the GOP has alleged that the Obama White House and re-election campaign unlawfully targeted conservative political groups applying for tax exempt status in 2010-11. We were hearing the GOP compare President Obama to Richard Nixon and there was even dark talk of impeachment from several prominent Republican members of Congress.
We have now recently learned that the Rupert Murdoch owned Wall St. Journal has reported: "It appears so far that no IRS employee committed intentional wrongdoing, and there's no evidence that anyone outside the IRS steered its actions. That counters some GOP lawmakers' charges that the operation was directed by the White House." We have also learned that the Internal Revenue Service targeted liberal groups as well as conservatives seeking tax-exempt status. Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI) said the terms "progressives" and "occupy" were included on IRS screening lists of applicants for tax-exempt status made available to Congress earlier this week.
These recent revelations essentially mark the end of this entire overheated IRS controversy. What this also means is that the GOP and its allies in the right wing media have been lying to the American people and the so-called "liberal mainstream media" for months about what occurred at the IRS. The so-called "mainstream media" should take a close look at itself and ask why they allowed themselves to be so badly played by the GOP.
The Republican Party's eternally cloudy crystal ball makes me very optimistic about the future of President Obama's signature domestic achievement. This time, the GOP is giving us all of their doom and gloom predictions about the implementation of Obama Care. What is really happening is that the implementation of Obama Care is going very well in the states that are committed to the program's success. For example, the proposed health insurance premium rates for the California exchange were just released, and it turns out there's plenty of competition among the insurers who are in the exchange, and that they will make insurance affordable for most customers. These predictions from the GOP and the recent developments in California (and some other states) should give us all great confidence that Obama Care will be a success.
I would tell anybody who will listen not to take any GOP prediction seriously. (One could get rich by making investment decisions by betting against the economic predictions of the right wing.) This interesting trend in American politics makes me very optimistic about the future of our country and the Democratic Party. We can bring about this bright future by continuing to work hard to elect our candidates in the 2014 elections. Let's also hope the right wing predicts a Republican landslide next year!